Explaining the COVID Violence Spike and the Roaring Crime Decline
Four Reasons for the Historic Beginning to the 2020s
The last five years have been a remarkable time in America for crime and justice.
First, in 2020 and 2021, there was the largest one-year increase in homicides ever recorded, and then a spike in broader measures of violence. By 2022, the pendulum had begun to swing, and violence peaked. In 2023, crime declined, gaining momentum in 2024, and is now accelerating into 2025, with historic falls in crime and violence not just mirroring the 2020 drop but exceeding it. Violence is now approaching levels not seen since the 1960s, or perhaps ever. This year may have the lowest homicide rate in modern records.
Why has violence dropped this much, at this time?
Below, I will make the case that four factors explain both the crime spike and the crime drop. Here are the Cliffs Notes.
Local governments (townships, cities, and counties) experienced massive layoffs in the spring of 2020 as governments reeled from lost tax revenue. These jobs include many of the people who work most directly, hands-on, wit…
