Very interesting article. I saw recently that homicide in Baltimore has plummeted, credited to diversion work with those most likely to be involved. I’m in the UK, and what is happening here is perhaps similar to in US. ‘Conventional’ crime continues to fall - homicides are down here too, from a much lower level of course. But a) a large section of the public believe crime is rising and getting more serious. And b) the public distrust statistics, especially official ones. Time and again in the official survey that is used here to track crime trends, more people say they are experiencing less crime themselves, yet they also think more crime is happening- elsewhere, to others. The issue now is not so much about actual safety (how many homicides are there?), but what is the perception of the homicides risk (do I feel less safe?). Policing and city authorities might succeed in cutting homicides, but they will fail if people do not believe it.
Increasingly, I think that the problem is with people conflating disorder and crime. In the US, there are few compelling measures of disorder--perhaps there are better measures in the UK we could learn from? But there is certainly a narrative that more 'disorderly' people are being encountered and this leads to the sort of dissonance you describe. But also, Gallup does a survey every year, and every year (since 2001 or so), people report that their area is not getting more dangerous but other places are. So this may just be part of a larger post 9/11 shift in mindset. I do think the 'see something, say something' campaigns contribute to these perceptions as well..
The debate here continues. My sense, as you say, is that it is increasingly about disorder - what is labelled here as antisocial behaviour - but also now extending across all sorts of behaviours and issues that may not be illegal or even a police matter. If you think your area/other areas are going downhill, things must be getting worse - right?
Exactly. If people like me keep saying there's a difference between disorder and crime, and crime is down, so you should be happy--and they don't see it and aren't happy, then we lose credibility. I am working on this for this weekend's essay...
Very interesting article. I saw recently that homicide in Baltimore has plummeted, credited to diversion work with those most likely to be involved. I’m in the UK, and what is happening here is perhaps similar to in US. ‘Conventional’ crime continues to fall - homicides are down here too, from a much lower level of course. But a) a large section of the public believe crime is rising and getting more serious. And b) the public distrust statistics, especially official ones. Time and again in the official survey that is used here to track crime trends, more people say they are experiencing less crime themselves, yet they also think more crime is happening- elsewhere, to others. The issue now is not so much about actual safety (how many homicides are there?), but what is the perception of the homicides risk (do I feel less safe?). Policing and city authorities might succeed in cutting homicides, but they will fail if people do not believe it.
Increasingly, I think that the problem is with people conflating disorder and crime. In the US, there are few compelling measures of disorder--perhaps there are better measures in the UK we could learn from? But there is certainly a narrative that more 'disorderly' people are being encountered and this leads to the sort of dissonance you describe. But also, Gallup does a survey every year, and every year (since 2001 or so), people report that their area is not getting more dangerous but other places are. So this may just be part of a larger post 9/11 shift in mindset. I do think the 'see something, say something' campaigns contribute to these perceptions as well..
The debate here continues. My sense, as you say, is that it is increasingly about disorder - what is labelled here as antisocial behaviour - but also now extending across all sorts of behaviours and issues that may not be illegal or even a police matter. If you think your area/other areas are going downhill, things must be getting worse - right?
Exactly. If people like me keep saying there's a difference between disorder and crime, and crime is down, so you should be happy--and they don't see it and aren't happy, then we lose credibility. I am working on this for this weekend's essay...