The Spike in Homicide in 2020

The murder spike was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. It was not about policing or protests.

On Wednesday, September 22nd, the New York Times reported on the 2020 Uniform Crime Report, noting that the FBI data had been uploaded to the FBI’s Data Explorer. As I write this on September 26th, I cannot access those data, but I assume that the Times reporting is accurate and that next week the FBI will release the 2020 numbers and they will be essentially similar to the Times story.

What I have in mind here is not really a hot take, but rather a prebuttal. For various reasons, crime data takes a long time to process, so by this point in September 2021, a lot of 2020 crime data has been gathered from other sources—mainly from big-city law enforcement agencies. So, even before the release, the picture is very clear.

In 2020, crime in America fell for the 19th straight year, the longest decline ever recorded using modern crime statistics.

Also in 2020, America experienced the largest one-year increase in homicide ever recorded using modern crime statistics.

Two record events, going in op…