John, love your work. I have a few questions that are likely wording issues. (1) When you say "non-homicide rate" do you mean "non-firearm homicide rate"? (2) When you say "nonfatal homicides" do you mean something like "nonfatal shootings" or (more likely) "non-firearm homicides"? And when you say "proportion of firearm homicides" do you mean "proportion of homicides involving a firearm"? Again, love that you are doing this work and just want to check to make sure I understand what you are saying. -Don
Thanks for the notes--your interpretations of my intent were right on, and I have edited accordingly. The upside and downside of Substack are the same--no editor!
Great piece. Connects directly with a jaw-dropping stat I encountered recently:
"Research by the criminologist Martin Wolfgang on Philadelphia’s homicide patterns from 1948 to 1952 reveals that only 33 per cent of the city’s homicides involved a firearm. Today, 91 per cent of homicides in Philadelphia feature a gun."
One underappreciated counter-trend (at least in Philly) is the rapid rise in multiple-victim shootings. Multiple victim shootings have roughly quintupled in Philadelphia recent years, presumably due to the proliferation of switches and extended magazines. It's now common to find double-digit cartridge casings at the scene of a shooting.
John, love your work. I have a few questions that are likely wording issues. (1) When you say "non-homicide rate" do you mean "non-firearm homicide rate"? (2) When you say "nonfatal homicides" do you mean something like "nonfatal shootings" or (more likely) "non-firearm homicides"? And when you say "proportion of firearm homicides" do you mean "proportion of homicides involving a firearm"? Again, love that you are doing this work and just want to check to make sure I understand what you are saying. -Don
Thanks for the notes--your interpretations of my intent were right on, and I have edited accordingly. The upside and downside of Substack are the same--no editor!
I love this guys work. Careful and thoughtful.
Very methodical and worth the effort to get to the bottom line payoff in re reducing homicide.
Great piece. Connects directly with a jaw-dropping stat I encountered recently:
"Research by the criminologist Martin Wolfgang on Philadelphia’s homicide patterns from 1948 to 1952 reveals that only 33 per cent of the city’s homicides involved a firearm. Today, 91 per cent of homicides in Philadelphia feature a gun."
https://aeon.co/essays/america-fell-for-guns-recently-and-for-reasons-you-will-not-guess?s=09
One underappreciated counter-trend (at least in Philly) is the rapid rise in multiple-victim shootings. Multiple victim shootings have roughly quintupled in Philadelphia recent years, presumably due to the proliferation of switches and extended magazines. It's now common to find double-digit cartridge casings at the scene of a shooting.