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This analysis was clear and powerful. It changed the way I see the problem of violence. I have two questions that no doubt will require additional data. First, has there been a marked increase in the availability of guns in neighborhoods where violence is already concentrated? The gun sales data are not spatially specific. Second, is the increased presence ghost guns sufficient to influence the growth in violent crime? A young prosecutor remarked to me last week that he saw ghost guns as the next big threat to community safety.

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Thanks Phil. On gun availability and the massive increase in gun purchasing, there's some panel data research that tends to say it's not (yet) affecting violence, but I tend to think as you suggest that the data are simply not granular enough. Prosecutor's I talk to say thee is a wholesale change in gun carrying among dealers, where instead of a community gun for protection, everyone carries a gun in a fanny pack. I think we will have more nuanced studies this year. On ghost guns, I think the jury is still out on whether the prevalence is sufficient to effect rates. This excellent recent article on the source and flow of guns into crime makes only a passing mention of ghost guns: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11524-020-00477-z

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