Musical interlude choice not withstanding (great song, great performance!), I'm not buying into the argument. 1. Police-initiated interactions driven by traffic stops are down, and will be down further when the 2020 data is available; however, your data table indicates only a marginal decrease from 2015 to 2018 of 0.7% in contacts between police and citizens arising from police stops of motorists and passengers in vehicles. 2. Although at a certain economic level, communities are older, wealthier and more diverse communities are demanding of public servants, but that's not where the majority of police are; they are in urban centers, poorer as a whole, and younger in many instances. Most police 9-1-1 calls, as well as police-initiated contacts are in response to youthful misconduct, not loud music at nursing homes. Yes - more diverse communities will have higher expectations as more diversity exists in middle and upper classes, but that may be generations away to have some significant impact on police interactions. 3. Technology is always changing in police work. The introduction of the telephonic call-box for "check-ins", the emergence of motorized patrols; the advent of the "radio car", etc. all brought about changes in police practices. In today's police agencies, ALPRs, facial recognition, aerial surveillance via CCTV or UAVs are all on the uptick; but at the same time, significant resistance from both the Left and the Right is being encountered as these technologies are viewed as authoritarian over-step and invasive of privacy. Many legislatures have thrown cold-water on their use, and many Chiefs (or Chief Counsels) have said stay away from these "third-rails". To your seminal point, policing HAS specialized, and continues to do so but largely by way of civilianization of some functions, such as crime and intelligence analysts, forensic scientists, and IT software specialists. "Badge-carriers" continue to do the street-work and detective-work, but with far greater supporting casts behind them. It would be likely that more police agencies would continue to de-emphasize the traditional roles of patrol officer and "gum-shoe" detective and instead add head-count in these and other yet-to-be discovered fields that specialists (other than cops themselves) would fill.
Thanks for the thoughts. On the traffic stops, the data is from the Police-Public Contact survey that was just released in December. I don't see much evidence the proportion of contacts that are traffic stops are declining over time, but it is a fair point I will look at more closely (I have more to say about the survey in a week or so, I just have to hear back from a key expert). On the 2nd point, urban centers are aging surprisingly quickly, with Rust Belt metros aging fastest, but there is more to think about there too.
Your last point though is one I think we agree on. Technology is absolutely changing and will continue to change policing. It's not hard to imagine some sworn officer functions entirely replaced by tech. More importantly, it is also easy to imagine tech-informed public safety activities (like policing disorganized and disordered places) leading to more non-police interventions and the need for fewer sworn officers for those tasks. There's much more to say on that as well, but not having an armed response to a bicyclist on the sidewalk leads to fewer shootings. What all that leaves police to do is a lot--intervene in potentially dangerous situations. But tech can better prepare them for that as well--the idea that in 2021 warrants are still served to the wrong house, or MH calls for service lead to shootings, or the officer with the special training isn't the one called upon, is, well, nuts. And consumer demand is going to change that pretty quickly.
Musical interlude choice not withstanding (great song, great performance!), I'm not buying into the argument. 1. Police-initiated interactions driven by traffic stops are down, and will be down further when the 2020 data is available; however, your data table indicates only a marginal decrease from 2015 to 2018 of 0.7% in contacts between police and citizens arising from police stops of motorists and passengers in vehicles. 2. Although at a certain economic level, communities are older, wealthier and more diverse communities are demanding of public servants, but that's not where the majority of police are; they are in urban centers, poorer as a whole, and younger in many instances. Most police 9-1-1 calls, as well as police-initiated contacts are in response to youthful misconduct, not loud music at nursing homes. Yes - more diverse communities will have higher expectations as more diversity exists in middle and upper classes, but that may be generations away to have some significant impact on police interactions. 3. Technology is always changing in police work. The introduction of the telephonic call-box for "check-ins", the emergence of motorized patrols; the advent of the "radio car", etc. all brought about changes in police practices. In today's police agencies, ALPRs, facial recognition, aerial surveillance via CCTV or UAVs are all on the uptick; but at the same time, significant resistance from both the Left and the Right is being encountered as these technologies are viewed as authoritarian over-step and invasive of privacy. Many legislatures have thrown cold-water on their use, and many Chiefs (or Chief Counsels) have said stay away from these "third-rails". To your seminal point, policing HAS specialized, and continues to do so but largely by way of civilianization of some functions, such as crime and intelligence analysts, forensic scientists, and IT software specialists. "Badge-carriers" continue to do the street-work and detective-work, but with far greater supporting casts behind them. It would be likely that more police agencies would continue to de-emphasize the traditional roles of patrol officer and "gum-shoe" detective and instead add head-count in these and other yet-to-be discovered fields that specialists (other than cops themselves) would fill.
Thanks for the thoughts. On the traffic stops, the data is from the Police-Public Contact survey that was just released in December. I don't see much evidence the proportion of contacts that are traffic stops are declining over time, but it is a fair point I will look at more closely (I have more to say about the survey in a week or so, I just have to hear back from a key expert). On the 2nd point, urban centers are aging surprisingly quickly, with Rust Belt metros aging fastest, but there is more to think about there too.
Your last point though is one I think we agree on. Technology is absolutely changing and will continue to change policing. It's not hard to imagine some sworn officer functions entirely replaced by tech. More importantly, it is also easy to imagine tech-informed public safety activities (like policing disorganized and disordered places) leading to more non-police interventions and the need for fewer sworn officers for those tasks. There's much more to say on that as well, but not having an armed response to a bicyclist on the sidewalk leads to fewer shootings. What all that leaves police to do is a lot--intervene in potentially dangerous situations. But tech can better prepare them for that as well--the idea that in 2021 warrants are still served to the wrong house, or MH calls for service lead to shootings, or the officer with the special training isn't the one called upon, is, well, nuts. And consumer demand is going to change that pretty quickly.