I believe the homicide decline is global and not just limited to the US. If so, that suggests other factors at play other than just US prevention efforts.
I'd love to see some data on this question. The little I've seen suggests the US violence spike was pretty unique. As for the recent decline, there has been a slow decline in violence in several peer nations, but I haven't seen anything like the 40+% homicide decline in the US. But the data I am familiar with from the UNODC aren't great, so I can certainly be convinced by better data.
I think you misstate the COVID spike case. It's not that after the spike we go back to some static normal. It's that the New Normal as Gen Z comes into prime crime committing age is that crime has been declining significantly for quite some time, as you document, and after the COVID, generated spike, that prior trend continued. There were fewer shooters in this generation to begin with and, after a bunch of them shot each other over a 2 year period, the prior downward trend accelerated once we were past the COVID lockdowns and their aftermath. IMO that's a much more supportable thesis than nebulously attributing it to local government spending. Just a few years ago you were attributing crime levels to police-force size, but clearly that thesis has been blown apart by the experience last 5 years. Police force sizes are down and crime is plummeting. So if local government employs fewer police, you'd have to say what spending you believe is causing the crime decline, bc it's not roads and bridges, and spending on homeless diversion has been controversial.
4. I don't believe I've ever argued that more police are needed to reduce crime, my first essay on External Processing argues that many police activities could be more efficiently performed by civilians, and I have stuck with that theme: https://johnkroman.substack.com/p/not-everyone-can-be-a-traffic-cop
I believe the homicide decline is global and not just limited to the US. If so, that suggests other factors at play other than just US prevention efforts.
I'd love to see some data on this question. The little I've seen suggests the US violence spike was pretty unique. As for the recent decline, there has been a slow decline in violence in several peer nations, but I haven't seen anything like the 40+% homicide decline in the US. But the data I am familiar with from the UNODC aren't great, so I can certainly be convinced by better data.
I think you misstate the COVID spike case. It's not that after the spike we go back to some static normal. It's that the New Normal as Gen Z comes into prime crime committing age is that crime has been declining significantly for quite some time, as you document, and after the COVID, generated spike, that prior trend continued. There were fewer shooters in this generation to begin with and, after a bunch of them shot each other over a 2 year period, the prior downward trend accelerated once we were past the COVID lockdowns and their aftermath. IMO that's a much more supportable thesis than nebulously attributing it to local government spending. Just a few years ago you were attributing crime levels to police-force size, but clearly that thesis has been blown apart by the experience last 5 years. Police force sizes are down and crime is plummeting. So if local government employs fewer police, you'd have to say what spending you believe is causing the crime decline, bc it's not roads and bridges, and spending on homeless diversion has been controversial.
Thanks for the note, Scott. I want to clarify a couple of points, as I kept this essay short and didn't add helpful links.
1. I first made the argument that losses of local government employees explained the crime spike here: https://johnkroman.substack.com/p/why-violence-spiked-in-2020-in-one
2. The argument that it also explains the decline is here: https://johnkroman.substack.com/p/why-did-crime-decline-in-2023
3. Here I explain my argument that homicide was rising for several years going into the pandemic: https://johnkroman.substack.com/p/explaining-the-covid-violence-spike
4. I don't believe I've ever argued that more police are needed to reduce crime, my first essay on External Processing argues that many police activities could be more efficiently performed by civilians, and I have stuck with that theme: https://johnkroman.substack.com/p/not-everyone-can-be-a-traffic-cop
5. I have argued that deterrence is critical to public safety, but the argument is about better policing focus, not more police: https://johnkroman.substack.com/p/lets-get-tough-on-crime-by-solving
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