Why did crime decline in 2023?

Because local government went back to normal

Last month I wrote that the huge spike in violence in America in 2020, 2021, and 2022 was the result of pandemic-related losses in staff and functionality within local governments. Today, I write that the reason crime has declined so much in 2023 is because local governments have mainly returned to normal.

As the calendar flips over to 2024, I am reading endless stories about the great crime decline of 2023. What these stories seem to have in common is that they are all about the trees, but there’s nothing about the forest. Yes, there have been big investments in police and a renewed focus on specific efforts to fight gun violence. Yes, there have been big investments in community-led strategies, particularly violence interruption programs, where private citizens with lived experience directly intervene after a shooting to break the cycle of retaliation. Both approaches have been productive in reversing the 2020 COVID-19 violence spike.

But focusing on the programs rather than the broa…