The FBI announced the change from UCR to NIBRS back 2016. They gave agencies 5 years to prepare for the switch, which is not as simple as flipping a switch. Entire CAD/RMS systems had to prepare for the change. Additionally, not all agencies reported to UCR, so I suspect many won’t report utilizing NIBRS either, but most will. There is a lot of nuance in the reporting itself, which also leads to inconsistency and confusion. Most agencies only have a few people, if any, that truly understand the correct reporting requirements. All that being said, it is our best data, and it gives us at least a benchmark. Crime, and the fear of crime, are two different things. One we can measure, one we can’t. Knowing this, it is easy to believe what you want to believe and convince others what is true. People should focus on their local police department crime numbers and learn to understand what they can tell you about community safety, but more importantly, what their limitations are. Red City/Blue City is not a productive way to evaluate crime, but it makes for good political media theatre. This is a very long and opaque way to say, we don’t do a good job tracking the right data, and there is a lot of room for improvement, but we have to work with what we have until we can work with what we need. Sure, some blue city policies, particularly around bail/no bail, have direct impacts in the short term, but probably don’t move the needle much over long periods. Lastly, as much as police leaders like to think we impact crime with our strategy, we are mostly reactive and busy being busy.
Investment in early childhood education and nutrition programs, providing wraparound services for youth, and those experiencing contact with the juvenile justice system are long term investments that I think we are just now beginning to see the benefit from. Police are also using data and information in more productive ways, identifying core issues/prolific offenders and developing strategies to find them earlier and intervene before violence escalates. I am bit curious about the staffing numbers. I have traveled to many police departments over the last two years and have only found a handful that don't have staffing issues. Maybe that is because I am in the Midwest, which has seen the most sizeable loss of police employees.
My bigger concern moving forward is demand on performance expectations from the public is increasing, investments in equipment, technology, and education are not being made at scale, and maybe the elephant in the room is that the only reason the staffing issues are not worse is because agencies are reducing their standards to attract more applicants.
Thanks for your work. It is always great to have my own perspectives challenged as a long time police insider.
The FBI changed how crimes were reported--for every law enforcement agency in America--on Jan. 1, 2021, while Trump was still president. Those rules have not changed under Biden. Cities do not get to choose what crime statistics they report, because the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting is ... uniform.
The FBI announced the change from UCR to NIBRS back 2016. They gave agencies 5 years to prepare for the switch, which is not as simple as flipping a switch. Entire CAD/RMS systems had to prepare for the change. Additionally, not all agencies reported to UCR, so I suspect many won’t report utilizing NIBRS either, but most will. There is a lot of nuance in the reporting itself, which also leads to inconsistency and confusion. Most agencies only have a few people, if any, that truly understand the correct reporting requirements. All that being said, it is our best data, and it gives us at least a benchmark. Crime, and the fear of crime, are two different things. One we can measure, one we can’t. Knowing this, it is easy to believe what you want to believe and convince others what is true. People should focus on their local police department crime numbers and learn to understand what they can tell you about community safety, but more importantly, what their limitations are. Red City/Blue City is not a productive way to evaluate crime, but it makes for good political media theatre. This is a very long and opaque way to say, we don’t do a good job tracking the right data, and there is a lot of room for improvement, but we have to work with what we have until we can work with what we need. Sure, some blue city policies, particularly around bail/no bail, have direct impacts in the short term, but probably don’t move the needle much over long periods. Lastly, as much as police leaders like to think we impact crime with our strategy, we are mostly reactive and busy being busy.
Cheers for an academic writing in language a layman can understand
Investment in early childhood education and nutrition programs, providing wraparound services for youth, and those experiencing contact with the juvenile justice system are long term investments that I think we are just now beginning to see the benefit from. Police are also using data and information in more productive ways, identifying core issues/prolific offenders and developing strategies to find them earlier and intervene before violence escalates. I am bit curious about the staffing numbers. I have traveled to many police departments over the last two years and have only found a handful that don't have staffing issues. Maybe that is because I am in the Midwest, which has seen the most sizeable loss of police employees.
https://www.policeforum.org/workforcemarch2022
My bigger concern moving forward is demand on performance expectations from the public is increasing, investments in equipment, technology, and education are not being made at scale, and maybe the elephant in the room is that the only reason the staffing issues are not worse is because agencies are reducing their standards to attract more applicants.
Thanks for your work. It is always great to have my own perspectives challenged as a long time police insider.
Will you accept that the Blue cities changed how crimes are reported under Biden lowering the statistics but not the reality too?
The FBI changed how crimes were reported--for every law enforcement agency in America--on Jan. 1, 2021, while Trump was still president. Those rules have not changed under Biden. Cities do not get to choose what crime statistics they report, because the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting is ... uniform.