The rise in the murder rate didn't have much to do with covid, it had to do with the Floyd Effect. The murder rate skyrocketed over a few days following the death of George Floyd on May 25, 2020 as The Establishment declare the Racial Reckoning. For example, the worst day in Chicago's storied history of homicide, May 31, 2020, was six days later with 18 murders.
Not sure there is super strong evidence but: Ensure schools have appropriate air filtration systems to reduce exposure to polluted air. We know pollution can cause crime and air filtration can improve student learning: https://jhr.uwpress.org/content/early/2023/02/01/jhr.0421-11642R2
I think you aren't mentioning another important key factor. Jails and prisons saw a large drop in their populations due to Covid early releases and decreases in prosecution.
Its possible, just possible, that some of the decrease in crime will be due to incapacitation effects as the worst offenders are sentenced and incarcerated for offending (again). That's part of local government too of course (and not to say the other things you mention about local government aren't other key drivers.
I don't disagree--when I talk to prosecutors, they make the same point. 'Crime' is a complex phenomenon of course, and there are many contributors to the crime spike and decline. But I haven't seen anyone talk about local government in this context (or really, any crime context).
There is a value to looking at neighborhood variation in these declines. Some are declining but not all. Why? For example, Zip Code 19123 in Philadelphia seems stuck.
As for the discussion of deterrence, it’s useful to think about the difference between shame and humiliation. With humiliation I believe that I have been wrongly demeaned. It pisses me off, and I can justify seeking revenge. Shame suggests that I accept the judgement that I’m a bad person. So I withdraw. Neither of these outcomes serves the interests of the justice system.
The rise in the murder rate didn't have much to do with covid, it had to do with the Floyd Effect. The murder rate skyrocketed over a few days following the death of George Floyd on May 25, 2020 as The Establishment declare the Racial Reckoning. For example, the worst day in Chicago's storied history of homicide, May 31, 2020, was six days later with 18 murders.
Thanks for the note. Check this out, I think it's a pretty compelling case that violence from the Floyd protests is incidental to the broader increase from COVID: https://johnkroman.substack.com/p/the-2020-homicide-spike-was-not-primarily
Not sure there is super strong evidence but: Ensure schools have appropriate air filtration systems to reduce exposure to polluted air. We know pollution can cause crime and air filtration can improve student learning: https://jhr.uwpress.org/content/early/2023/02/01/jhr.0421-11642R2
I think you aren't mentioning another important key factor. Jails and prisons saw a large drop in their populations due to Covid early releases and decreases in prosecution.
Its possible, just possible, that some of the decrease in crime will be due to incapacitation effects as the worst offenders are sentenced and incarcerated for offending (again). That's part of local government too of course (and not to say the other things you mention about local government aren't other key drivers.
I don't disagree--when I talk to prosecutors, they make the same point. 'Crime' is a complex phenomenon of course, and there are many contributors to the crime spike and decline. But I haven't seen anyone talk about local government in this context (or really, any crime context).
There is a value to looking at neighborhood variation in these declines. Some are declining but not all. Why? For example, Zip Code 19123 in Philadelphia seems stuck.
As for the discussion of deterrence, it’s useful to think about the difference between shame and humiliation. With humiliation I believe that I have been wrongly demeaned. It pisses me off, and I can justify seeking revenge. Shame suggests that I accept the judgement that I’m a bad person. So I withdraw. Neither of these outcomes serves the interests of the justice system.