Violence is Plummeting in the US!

And We Should Thank The Invisible Touch of Local Government

Violence is plummeting in the United States. All available data from 2023 show a decline in homicide that is so large that it is near the top of all-time, one-year crime declines.

Now, crime data from the first quarter of 2024 are becoming available, and they show a homicide decline almost twice as large as in 2023.

The violence decline appears to be accelerating.

Homicide is not a particularly volatile measure, typically moving in long-slow arcs over many years. So, the rollercoaster of a historical spike in homicide in 2020 and a historical decline in 2023-2024 is without precedent.

But, rollercoasters aside, this is great news!

And we, the collective American electorate, don’t believe it. I want to talk about why we don’t believe it, why we should believe it, and what I think the cause is. And a little bit about why it matters—why it really matters, and not just for politics.

Waiting for Dumbledore

The number one reason we don’t believe there has been a massive decline in violence is …