Archive - External Processing

Explaining the COVID Violence Spike and the Roaring Crime Decline

Four Reasons for the Historic Beginning to the 2020s

May 13 •

John Roman, PhD

April 2025

Why has crime declined? Part Deux

Also, infusing your statistical jargon with meaning

Apr 18 •

John Roman, PhD

March 2025

Abundance, and Public Safety

The Main Obstacle to Reducing Crime is Scarcity

Mar 25 •

John Roman, PhD

The Grit and Grind of Cal Ripken, Truancy and the NBA, and Hidden Flaws of Cause and Effect

Who says a title has to be short to be catchy?

Mar 18 •

John Roman, PhD

January 2025

Why Crime Policy Should be as Complex as Crime Itself

The Need for a Macro Perspective on Crime

Jan 30 •

John Roman, PhD

A Forecast for Less Violence in 2025

The crime decline is slowing and we will need to find new mechanisms for a further decline

Jan 8 •

John Roman, PhD

December 2024

The Limits of AI

And a quick look at the decline of firearms homicide in 2024

Dec 23, 2024 •

John Roman, PhD

November 2024

The 2020 Homicide Spike was not Primarily Caused by Protests

The Lead Explanation for the Great American Crime Decline Loses Some Steam, and a Race Report...

Nov 2, 2024 •

John Roman, PhD

October 2024

Disorder, the Election, and Social Norms

Disorder does not mean wrongdoing, it means 'not in order', which requires some prior beliefs you might think about revisiting...

Oct 19, 2024 •

John Roman, PhD

September 2024

Unpacking National Crime Statistics

More frequent crime reporting would reduce the confusion that is clouding the presidential election

Sep 18, 2024 •

John Roman, PhD

An Investigation of War Crimes

Just a note that the topic of this essay requires some difficult-to-read narrative, and that may not be everyone’s cup of tea.

Sep 12, 2024 •

John Roman, PhD

August 2024

Unpacking the Decline in Firearm Violence

What trends we should be looking at and what they imply for the future

Aug 28, 2024 •

John Roman, PhD

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